FX168 Financial News Agency (Hong Kong) reports that the market will be awaiting the advance release of the nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday, July 2. Ahead of the release, gold futures prices have remained firm, currently trading just below $1,800 per ounce.

Analyst AG Thorson has penned a brief analysis of gold’s price action, as follows:

This week’s employment data could push gold prices above $1,800 per ounce or signal a medium-term top. Volatility is expected to increase today.

To achieve a breakout, gold futures must close above $1,820 on the daily chart. Conversely, if prices close below $1,770 in the coming days, it will likely confirm a top, followed by a 1- to 3-month decline.

The most common tactic used by speculators is to enter short positions just as the price breaks above a resistance level, thereby triggering a round of profit-taking and market manipulation. I’m not sure whether this will happen this time, but it’s quite likely.

Our gold-cycle indicator has reached 441, hitting the upper end of its peak range. The conditions for a cyclical top have now fully materialized. Should gold prices peak, they are expected to subsequently decline to $1,450–$1,550 per ounce.

Gold is currently testing around $1,800, and I believe we’ll know whether the price will break out after Thursday’s nonfarm payrolls report.

Gold prices need to close below $1,770 to confirm a potential topping pattern. Conversely, a daily close above $1,820 would propel gold futures higher, potentially breaking through to $1,900.